The Trump Administration's Expected Impact on U.S. Rail
A second Donald Trump Administration is poised to usher in notable changes in U.S. passenger and freight rail policy.
During President Trump's first term, passenger rail was not a primary focus. The President-Elect's past actions and campaign statements indicate that it is unlikely to become a priority in his upcoming term. The shift in passenger rail policy may include reduced federal support for existing passenger rail services and high-speed rail projects. Additionally, public transit systems, which rely on federal funding, could face challenges in securing resources for the maintenance and expansion of rail systems due to cuts in discretionary transportation funding. Deregulation of the passenger and freight rail industries, which President Trump pursued in his first term, will likely resume in his second term.
In late December, the President-Elect took the first step in shaping his administration's approach to rail policy by selecting former Pan Am Railways CEO David Fink to lead the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). With the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) expiring in September 2026, the Trump Administration will have the opportunity to craft its own surface transportation reauthorization bill, shaping rail policy for years to come. As the administration's policies unfold, stakeholders in the rail sector will need to be prepared to adapt to an evolving policy landscape shaped by dips in funding for passenger rail and a laissez-faire approach to regulation.
Funding Cuts
The Trump Administration is anticipated to implement budget cuts that could significantly impact various passenger rail initiatives. Specifically, the administration and congressional Republicans may attempt to offset annual passenger rail funding using advanced appropriations provided by the IIJA, which included $66 billion in advanced appropriations for rail projects.1
Programs such as the Federal State Partnership for Intercity Passenger Rail (Fed-State) and grants to Amtrak are predictable targets for funding cuts during the annual appropriations process. Congress and the incoming administration could also seek to cut down obligations for already awarded projects, particularly those in Democratic jurisdictions. However, the Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements (CRISI) grants and their popularity among shortline railroads will have a champion in the new FRA administrator, so expect the focus to be on this program in the next reauthorization.
The incoming administration might explore options to reduce operating subsidies and encourage state or private sector funding for local transit systems, rather than relying on federal investment. These approaches are all in line with the broader Republican initiative to reduce discretionary transportation funding.
Amtrak
In contrast to President Joe Biden's rail-focused infrastructure spending, which has directed billions to Amtrak, the Trump Administration may attempt to reduce funding for the Amtrak Northeast Corridor (NEC) and Amtrak National Network accounts or limit funding to essential routes. Budget proposals during President Trump's first term often recommended cutting Amtrak's funding by 40 percent to 50 percent and eliminating Amtrak's long-distance routes.2 The administration indicated that funding cuts were intended to eliminate excessive spending on routes with low ridership and redirect funds to high-traffic routes. Nevertheless, the NEC, which is the busiest rail line in the U.S.,3 was also subject to proposed cuts in funding.
High-Speed Rail
Though the Biden Administration supported various high-speed rail projects, the Trump Administration is not expected to continue this level of support. Although President-Elect Trump expressed support for high-speed rail on the 2024 campaign trail, the first Trump Administration regularly called for cuts to Amtrak, which operates several high-speed trains on the NEC, and to California's high-speed rail project.
In 2019, the Trump Administration canceled a $929 million grant for California's high-speed rail project.4 This move was part of a broader effort to claw back nearly $2.5 billion in federal funds awarded to the project,5 which is nearly $100 billion over budget.
Congressional Republicans largely supported these proposed cuts during President Trump's first term and are expected to take a similar stance during his second term. Although some GOP lawmakers are supportive of high-speed rail, interstate highway development, which congressional Republicans view as more beneficial to rural Americans, will undoubtedly take precedence over high-speed rail in funding discussions on Capitol Hill during the 119th Congress.
Regulatory and Labor Issues
During the first Trump Administration, the president worked to roll back regulations impacting the rail industry. Notably, the Trump Administration scrapped an Obama-era rule that required electronically controlled pneumatic (ECP) brakes on trains carrying flammable hazardous materials6 and eased hazardous materials regulations (HMR) to allow for the bulk transport of refrigerated liquefied natural gas (LNG) in rail tank cars.7 Expect a second Trump Administration to continue deregulating the rail industry.
The incoming Trump Administration also is anticipated to promulgate rules and frameworks allowing for the increased presence of automated technologies across all modes of transportation, including rail. During a second Trump term, expect railroads to get the green light on increased utilization of automated track inspection (ATI) in lieu of visual inspections, a measure that will put his administration at odds with organized labor in its resistance of automation.8
Looking Ahead
Though a second Trump Administration may pose challenges for passenger rail, the rail industry has a unique opportunity to engage proactively with the incoming administration by attempting to align its goals with the administration's priorities. Industry stakeholders should make a compelling case for continued investment in passenger rail by emphasizing economic benefits such as job creation, support for the U.S. transportation supply chain and regional connectivity. By engaging in constructive dialogue about deregulation, the industry can work with the administration to ensure that safety and efficiency are maintained while embracing technological advancements.
Notes
1 FRA (last updated Nov. 15, 2024).
2 Reuters, "Trump proposes cutting Amtrak funding, boosting infrastructure spending" (Feb. 10, 2020).
3 Fiscal Year 2023 NEC Annual Report (34).
5 U.S. Department of Transportation (Feb. 19, 2019).
6 Federal Register, "Hazardous Materials: Removal of Electronically Controlled Pneumatic Brake System Requirements for High Hazard Flammable Unit Trains" (Sept. 25, 2019).
7 Federal Register, "Hazardous Materials: Liquefied Natural Gas by Rail" (July 24, 2020).
8 AFL-CIO Transportation Trades Department, "Transportation Labor Calls for Worker Protections Amidst the Development of Autonomous & Automated Rail Technologies" Nov. 21, 2024.